Growth strategy, forecast, and the roadmap to $30M.
Today we align on three things: the current state of your business, the forecast that defines the ideal state, and the strategy CTC will execute to close the gap.
Key question: How much Google is demand creation vs. brand capture?
Meta redefined what counts as a "click." Previously, likes, shares, saves, and comments all triggered click-through attribution. Now only outbound link clicks count. This changes how every brand reads their ROAS.
Full analysis: ctc-click-attribution.netlify.app
Top 100 Meta ads by spend (Sep 2025 – Mar 2026). Statics are 8% of volume but hold top ROAS. Bundles dominate the efficiency leaderboard.
10 metrics that define your ceilings and advantages.
| Metric | RORRA | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COD % | 54.3% | < 30% | ● |
| OpEx % | 18.2% | < 25% | ● |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 0 days | < 0 | ● |
| 60-Day LTV Growth | 2.9% | ≥ 30% | ● |
| 1-Year LTV Growth | 49.3% | ≥ 100% | ● |
| FOV:nCAC | ~0 | > 0 | ● |
| Distribution Channels | 1 | ≥ 3 | ● |
| % Organic Traffic | 50% | ≥ 50% | ● |
| 1-Year LTV:nCAC | 0.39 | > 0.5 | ● |
| Revenue Peaks | 1 | ≥ 4 | ● |
54% cost of delivery means every dollar must work harder.
Your LTV does the heavy lifting.
You break even on Day 1. Then retention takes over.
For every $1 you put in, you get $1.39 back.
Your target. Here's how the model gets there.
We model new customer revenue as spend through a historical efficiency curve; calibrated from thousands of brands at similar levels.
Both scenarios built from your historical aMER curve. Stretch assumes higher spend with maintained efficiency.
| Base | Stretch | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Spend | New Rev | Spend | New Rev |
| Q1 Actual | $1.72M | $3.59M | $1.72M | $3.59M |
| Q2 | $1.58M | $3.41M | $1.86M | $4.13M |
| Q3 | $1.93M | $3.96M | $2.30M | $5.17M |
| Q4 | $2.86M | $5.72M | $3.19M | $6.80M |
* aMER = New Order Revenue / Total Spend. Returning revenue not shown; adds ~$8-10M to annual total.
Your breakeven aMER depends on your cost of delivery. Here's the math at two reference points we can verify together.
| Scenario | COD % | Margin / Order | Breakeven CAC | Breakeven aMER | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Feb Actuals | 48.1% | $462 × 51.9% = $240 | $240 | 1.93x | At current 2.32x aMER you're +$28/customer profit on first order |
| Growth Quotient | 54.3% | $462 × 45.7% = $211 | $211 | 2.19x | At current CAC of $212 you're roughly breakeven on first order; LTV does the work |
2025 vs 2026; the scale of transformation. Returning revenue in Q4 2026 alone exceeds most total months of 2025.
The base forecast projects $25.75M; the stretch reaches $29.27M. Three levers CTC directly controls close the gap between them; and then some.
| CTC Lever | What We Do | Upside | Current Spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal Media Mix Data-backed allocation |
Shift spend between Meta, Google, and YouTube based on incrementality results. Reduce over-attributed channels, scale under-invested ones | $200-400K | $61K/mo across 3 channels |
| Incrementality Testing 4 phases · 16 weeks |
Meta geo-holdout, Google brand vs shopping vs PMAX split, YouTube brand lift validation; find true channel-level ROI and reallocate $80-100K/mo to highest-performing channels | $600K-1.4M | $8-19K test budget |
| Creative Optimization aMER +0.05-0.10 |
12-16 new concepts/month, shift budget from underperformers to proven formats (Bundle + statics), AIDA-driven testing framework | $300-500K | 63/100 creative score |
April · 5 DMAs
~15% spend holdout
YTD Spend: $921K
May · Brand vs Shopping vs PMAX
YTD Spend: $473K
June · Brand Lift + search correlation
YTD Spend: $36K
July · Data-backed allocation
Execute
First 2 days of April. Paid media aMER is strong; Huberman #8 partnership spend (launched Mar 30) is separate and decaying.
| Channel | Spend | ROAS | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | $18.8K | 1.89x | Review underperformers |
| $10.4K | 4.04x | Push ↑ | |
| YouTube | $1.6K | 0.74x | Early; watch |
Let's prove where every dollar belongs.